End of the First Quarter in the NFL

With a quarter of the season in the books, this Fantasy Football season is shaping up to be a dynamic one with surprises relating to some busts and injuries. While Tom Brady and Randy Moss have rewarded their owners with plenty of yards and TDs, the top four backs in Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson and Frank Gore have been pretty disappointing given their high draft values. In fact, many owners of Lamont Jordan are now boasting their drafting prowess.

Do these arguments have merit? While some could argue it is still early in the season, I have serious concerns about all four top backs. Tomlinson’s Chargers seem to really have deteriorated on both sides of the ball, particularly in their defense. In the defense of Steven Jackson owners, his injury and decline in the team’s offense could not have been forecasted. Frank Gore has simply been ineffective and possibly did not deserve all the hype since preseason, especially working for a mediocre offense. Anyone who thought Brandon Jacobs was going to transition into a featured back who would put up huge numbers was very disappointed. Hopefully you didn’t draft him too early.

So who are the real winners? Those risk takers who boldly stepped up and went against the peanut gallery at the draft! Ronnie Brown, highly underutilized last season, is benefiting from more carries in a slightly improved offense with Trent Green at the helm. He’s highly versatile and has great vision, and loyal owners are finally reaping the benefits! It’s no secret Steve Smith is a fantasy stud, but the constant nagging injuries and struggling offense brought up plenty of questions. So far he’s provided tremendous value. Ditto for Westbrook, except we had more confidence in the offense. Braylon Edwards, a very talented receiver, has perhaps been the biggest surprise, and huge kudos to that Cleveland offensive line, a poised quarterback, and the Brown’s front office for making a last minute QB decision that many initially questioned. And finally Adrian Peterson fans have seen their hopes come to fruition, as he quickly stepped up into the offensive weapon many thought he could be, and quietly displaced Chester Taylor into a secondary role on the depth charts upon his injury recovery.

I wouldn’t be too quick to pat yourself on the back as the risks remain for all these players. Hopefully you have the backup running backs in the event of injuries and you are continuing to scour the waiver wires as the season progresses.

Start your fantasy football strategy now

Now that the draft has got you semi-focused on the upcoming nfl season, its a good idea to try and stay focused with fantasy football season just months away (ok, over 4 months, which is going to seem like an eternity). So most of the sites offer these fantasy football pros who will provide you with all of the useless trivia they think will prepare you for YOUR draft.

Only YOU know your league and its scoring system. That is the key and will separate your team from a mediocre season to a championship. My advice to you is get all of the relevant 2006 data into an excel spreadsheet and do a quick and dirty ranking using YOUR league's scoring system. The very basics will do, (pass/rec/rush yards, tds). The results might surprise you. Ok we all know that Tomlinson is a runaway #1 no matter what scoring system you use. As for the other selections, you may be able to pick out an undervalued running back because your league gives pretty good points for receiving yards. Although you can't ignore the TDs category, one can argue that yards is a more consistent measure and more likely to be repeated.



The other main point is the dropoff. By ranking the players according to your league's scoring system, you'll get a much better perspective as to the dropoff in points between running back #5 and #10...and as we know will be much higher than a dropoff in receivers.

As last season has taught us, you can no longer ignore defenses. Many pros state that kickers and defenses should be picked last. If my team didn't have Baltimore's defense last year I'd probably have a losing record.

OK, and back to the draft. Its conceivable that there will be about five rookie players that will have an impact on offense this year. Not much to play with compared with last season, but pay attention to the other positions as well...improved defenses such as Miami's may provide some argument for those who were disappointed with Ronnie Brown's game to reconsider now that the offense should be on the field more.

Don't listen to the pros. They don't know your league and besides, fantasy football is much more fun when you craft your own strategy and opinions on players and make it your season.